Skilled Artisans That Are Not To Be Replaced By AI And ML Anytime Soon

A Note Before You Read

When I set out to explore what AI and machine learning might mean for the skilled artisan, the available expert opinion was reassuring. Plumbers, it was suggested, were among the safest workers in the economy. The trades would survive the coming wave.

But as my research progressed, a contrary picture began to emerge — one far more nuanced than I had been led to believe.

I had already come too far to abandon the piece. So I am publishing it as it stands: a record of where the research began, and of what the experts were saying when I started. What I found in the closing stages is a different story, and it deserves its own telling.

That is the follow-up. It will explore the convergence of AI, machine learning, and robotics — and why the plumber's protection may be a window rather than a wall.

Read this piece as the first half of a longer conversation. The second half is coming.

Coming soon: "The Window, Not the Wall: AI, Robotics, and the Coming Pressure on the Skilled Trades"

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You may have heard it being speculated that plumbing could be one skill that may not be replaced by AI or ML anytime soon. It is a curious thought, and at first it seems almost counterintuitive. Even heavily specialised disciplines such as medical surgery are increasingly being encroached upon by robots that can perform surgeries and other medical procedures with a precision that surpasses the human hand. At the same time, we already have machines that can build the walls of a house in a single working day.

The machines are coming, it seems, for every trade and every profession.

And yet, the humble plumber — the tradesman with his bag of tools, his knowledge of pipes and drains, his ability to diagnose a leak by the faintest sound of water where water should not be — is repeatedly cited as one of the safest occupations in the age of artificial intelligence.

Why is that? And what does it tell us about the future of work, the limits of machines, and the enduring value of skilled human hands?

This blog is an attempt to explore that question. It is not written by an economist or a futurist, but by a renovator — someone who has worked with his hands, who has crawled under sinks and behind walls, who has learned to read the language of buildings the way a doctor reads the body. And in that experience, I believe, lies the answer.

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1. The Automation Wave: What the Machines Are Actually Doing

There is no denying that the world of work is being transformed. Factories that once employed thousands of hands now run with a skeleton staff overseeing robotic production lines. Self-checkout counters have replaced cashiers. Algorithms now draft legal documents, write marketing copy, and even compose music. Artificial intelligence and machine learning are not future threats; they are present realities.

In the building industry, the changes are equally striking — though it is worth being precise about how far they have actually gone.

Robotic bricklayers such as the Hadrian X can theoretically lay up to 360 blocks per hour, against roughly 500 per day for a human mason. SAM100, the Semi-Automated Mason, is a collaborative robot that increases productivity by three to five times on commercial sites in the United States. And experimental systems can now 3D-print concrete walls for entire houses in a matter of hours.

But here is what the headlines rarely mention: these machines are not yet commonplace. They exist. They are proven. But they are expensive — the Hadrian X carries a price tag of approximately $7.8 million, and the SAM100 around $500,000 — and they operate in controlled conditions, on new-build sites, with prepared materials and predictable geometry. They are not yet sitting in the back of a bakkie outside a house in Kempton Park, waiting to be told what to do.

And in medicine, robotic surgical systems such as the da Vinci Surgical System allow human surgeons to perform complex procedures through tiny incisions, with robotic arms translating the surgeon's hand movements into micro-movements of extraordinary accuracy. But the surgeon is still in the room. The robot is a tool, not a replacement. It does the fine work only because a human hand is directing it.

So the wave is real. But it is still offshore. And that distinction — between what is possible and what is present — is the one the alarmist headlines always blur.

It is also why, in the middle of all this, the plumber remains stubbornly, gloriously irreplaceable — for now.

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2. What Thought Leaders Are Saying About the Trades

The idea that skilled trades — plumbing in particular — are resistant to automation is not a fringe view. It is increasingly the conclusion of some of the world's most respected economists, technologists, and futurists.

Martin Ford, the American futurist and author of Rise of the Robots and Architects of Intelligence, has written extensively about the automation of work. In his analysis, he distinguishes between tasks that are routine and predictable — which are highly susceptible to automation — and tasks that are non-routine and unpredictable — which are far more resistant.

Ford put it plainly: "One area that is safe for people is the kind of job that requires lots of dexterity, hand-eye coordination and flexibility. Think about skilled trade jobs like a plumber or electrician."

In a later work, Rule of the Robots, he expanded on this: "The third safe area includes jobs that require significant mobility, dexterity and problem-solving skills in unpredictable environments. For example, trade workers such as plumbers and electricians."

Geoffrey Hinton, the Nobel Prize-winning computer scientist often called the "Godfather of AI," went further in a June 2025 interview: "I'd say it's going to be a long time before it (AI) is as good at physical manipulation. So a good bet would be to be a plumber."

David Autor, the MIT economist whose work on labour market polarisation has shaped a generation of policy discussion, has argued that the jobs most likely to survive automation are those requiring situational adaptability, physical mobility, and tacit knowledge. As he put it: "the challenges to substituting machines for workers in tasks requiring adaptability, common sense and creativity remain immense."

Bill Gates has warned that white-collar jobs will be disrupted first, but has also expressed confidence that skilled trades will endure — though he adds a caution: "sure, robots could build houses, but what happens to all the skilled carpenters?"

Lord Martin Rees, the , has made a similar observation: "Skilled service sector blue-collar jobs, like plumbing and gardening, they require non-routine interactions with the external world — they would be far harder to automate."

The machine that lays bricks — repetitive, predictable, and precisely the kind of task automation does well.

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3. Why Plumbing Is So Hard to Automate

So what is it, exactly, that makes plumbing — and by extension, much of the skilled artisan trades — so resistant to replacement by AI and ML?

A. The Unstructured Environment

A robot on an assembly line works in a controlled environment. Every part is in the same place every time. Every movement can be programmed in advance.

A plumber works in the real world. And the real world is messy.

No two houses are exactly alike. Pipes run through walls in ways that were never documented. Water leaks originate in places no camera can see. The problem the plumber is called to solve is rarely the problem described over the phone. The work involves crawling into cramped spaces, working around existing structures, and adapting to conditions that no engineer anticipated.

A machine that can build a wall on a prepared site is one thing. A machine that can enter a fifty-year-old home, diagnose a hidden leak, and repair it without destroying the wall is something else entirely — and nobody is close to building it.

B. Tactile Sensitivity and Physical Dexterity

Plumbing requires a sense of touch that robots have not yet mastered. The difference between a joint that is tight enough and a joint that is too tight — a difference that prevents leaks without cracking the fitting — is often felt in the fingers, not calculated by an algorithm.

The same is true for electrical work, carpentry, plastering, and a host of other trades. The skilled artisan reads his materials through his hands. He can feel when a drill bit is about to bind, when a pipe is about to give way, when a surface is ready for the next coat. This is tacit knowledge — the kind that cannot be downloaded into a machine.

C. Diagnostic Intuition

An AI system can analyse data. It can even learn to recognise patterns in images or sounds. But plumbing diagnosis often involves intuition built from years of experience — the faint gurgle that suggests a partially blocked vent, the discolouration on a ceiling that points to a slow leak three rooms away, the slight movement in a wall that indicates a corroded pipe behind the plaster.

These are not simple pattern-matching tasks. They are acts of interpretation, informed by a mental model of how water, gravity, and buildings interact.

D. The Human Element

Finally, there is the human element. A plumber is not merely a technician. He is a person who enters someone's home, listens to their worries, explains what needs to be done, and often works under stressful conditions — a burst pipe in the middle of the night, a kitchen flooded on a Sunday afternoon, an elderly client who needs reassurance as much as repairs.

As one industry report on humanoid robots in construction noted: "A human will provide oversight, confirm solution paths." Trust matters. Empathy matters. The ability to communicate clearly and to treat a client's home with respect matters.

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4. The Broader Lesson: The Trades Are the Future

The growing recognition that plumbing and other skilled trades are resistant to automation is part of a broader shift in how we think about work and value.

For decades, the message pushed by schools, parents, and policy-makers has been that the only path to success runs through university and the professions. The trades were seen as a fallback for those who couldn't make it academically. That message was always wrong. It is now dangerously wrong.

The skills that keep the physical world running — plumbing, electrical work, carpentry, plastering, tiling, and the many other artisan trades — are precisely the skills that will remain in demand long after many white-collar jobs have been automated away.

And the South African data bears this out. According to the 2025 Xpatweb Critical Skills Survey, artisans alone represent nearly one in four of the country's critical skills shortages, with bricklayers, carpenters, joiners, plumbers and pipe fitters all in demand. The KwaZulu-Natal Department of Public Works, which spends more than R25 million annually sourcing artisanship services externally, has acknowledged: "We do have quite a shortage in plumbers and carpenters as well as electricians."

And the earning potential reflects that scarcity. As Business Day reported in April 2025: "In SA, blue-collar professions such as electricians, plumbers, welders and other technical trades are experiencing salary growth as their demand exceeds supply." Skilled workers in these fields can earn salaries "comparable to, if not exceeding, their white-collar counterparts."

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5. What This Means for the Next Generation

If I could speak directly to a young person deciding what to do with their life, I would say this:

Do not be afraid of the trades. The machines are not coming for the plumber — not yet, not for a while. They are coming for the predictable, the routine, the codified. And even in the trades, the technology that does emerge will not replace the artisan — it will augment him.

The plumber of the future may use smart sensors to detect leaks, digital tools to map pipe runs, and AI to help schedule and diagnose. But the hands, the judgment, the intuition, and the human presence will remain his.

The machines can build the walls. Let them. The world will still need someone to fix the pipes when the water stops flowing, to find the leak when the ceiling darkens, to restore warmth and light and dignity to the places where people live.

That someone is the skilled artisan. And the future — for now — belongs to him.

Or so I thought, when this piece was written. The follow-up will tell a different story.

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